RXO’s 2025 “Curve” report shows that U.S. spot freight rate growth is losing momentum. In the second quarter of 2025, spot rates increased by 6.5% year-over-year, down from 9.1% in the first quarter. This marks the third straight quarter of slowing growth, reflecting ongoing market weakness.
Freight demand remains soft as shippers continue to hold back on volumes, leading to an extended downturn in the truckload market. Many small carriers and owner-operators are either exiting the industry or shifting to company driver positions as they struggle with low profitability. While this is reducing capacity, it hasn’t been enough to create strong pricing power for carriers yet.
The report indicates that the overall economy is performing better than freight, but trucking cycles often lag behind economic trends. RXO expects spot rates to keep rising gradually, but the rebound will likely resemble the slow recovery seen in 2014, not the rapid surge experienced during 2020–21.
Analysts warn that meaningful improvement may not happen in the next two quarters due to excess capacity and cautious shipper behavior. Contract rates are also seeing only modest adjustments, signaling a slow and uncertain path to market stabilization.
